The LVH can’t win a coin-toss bet. Over the past few seasons, the LVH has failed to turn a profit on a bet that should go its way. The opening coin toss of the Super Bowl is a fool’s bet, a chance to gamble on a true 50/50 proposition without 50/50 odds, as the -101 odds dictate that a $100 bet would only return $99.01 in profit. Assuming that half of the gambling populace thinks the bet will be heads and the other half thinks that it’ll be tails, the bet should return a slight profit to the LVH over the long run.
The reality, though, is that the gambling public does not end up going with a 50/50 split. For some reason, the public favors a bet on heads over one on tails, meaning that the book will usually turn a profit when a coin toss comes up tails and lose money when that same coin falls on the other side. This was backed up by the Papa John’s poll where the public got to pick heads or tails for the coin toss with a free pizza on the line, in which 60 percent of voters chose heads.
You can see where this one’s going. For the fourth straight year, the Super Bowl coin toss came up heads. Vegas lost on the dumbest bet in the book. Again. And that wasn’t even the most exciting story to come out of the coin toss, as New York’s failed call of the coin meant that the AFC won the coin toss for the first time in 15 years. The odds of one conference winning the coin toss 14 consecutive times are 8192-to-1, or +819200 in proper Vegas parlance. Hey! We finally found a bet that made a Bobcats NBA title run look likely.